What will the Autumn Budget hold for the UK economy?

With the Budget confirmed for 26 November, attention has turned to what it will involve and who will be most affected by changes.

If you are tax planning in Cheshire, you will be keen to know how you might be impacted. Certainly, there has been much speculation about possible tax rises or spending cuts. As the date approaches, the Chancellor will have much to ponder.

In her efforts to balance the books and satisfy the OBR’s fiscal rules, the main question is what, if anything, Rachel Reeves does with taxes. She has previously ruled out raising national insurance, income tax or value added tax. One potential option that has been suggested is an extension of the current freeze on income tax thresholds beyond 2028.

Elsewhere, she may choose to focus on reforming property tax, by replacing stamp duty and increasing taxes on landlords. She might opt to target local government taxation by ending council tax, or adjusting the capital tax gains rules. Although Reeves previously opposed reducing individual savings account allowances, that might reappear on the agenda. With pensions too, there could be changes to tax relief to contend with.

The Resolution Foundation anticipates that there will be small rises in personal taxation. Elsewhere, there have been calls to target the gambling industry with higher taxes and protect energy consumers, with VAT phased out on domestic fuel bills.

Whatever announcements are confirmed in the Budget, the Government will face some challenging decisions in the months and years ahead. New data from KPMG predicts GDP not exceeding 1.2% this year or 1.1% in 2026.

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